The demographic transition

As a country develops, mortality falls first and only later births: in between the population grows fast, at the end it almost stops or shrinks. This is the demographic transition. Here you can see its stages, which stage each country is in and how many people live in each stage, from 1950 to 2100.

The five-stage model

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 5 birth rate death rate population natural increase

Diagram (not data): birth rate, death rate and population in the five stages.

  1. Stage 1: pre-transition birth rate 30‰ or more and death rate 20‰ or more Many people are born and many die: the population grows little.
  2. Stage 2: falling death rate birth rate 30‰ or more and death rate below 20‰ Mortality has fallen but many children are still born: the population grows fast.
  3. Stage 3: falling birth rate birth rate between 18‰ and 30‰ Births are falling too: growth slows down.
  4. Stage 4: modern regime birth rate below 18‰, more births than deaths Births and deaths are low: the population grows little.
  5. Stage 5: natural decrease birth rate below 18‰, more deaths than births More people die than are born: without migration the population shrinks.

The thresholds are a GeoScope.ch rule, taken from geography textbooks: the United Nations does not divide countries into stages. Birth and death rates are the UN’s (World Population Prospects 2024); estimates up to 2023, then projections (medium scenario).

How many people live in each stage

Show
2026

    People living in the countries of each stage, year by year (UN states and territories); on the right, the shares for the chosen year. After 2023 projections, lighter.

    See the stages on the map

    Countries in each stage

    UN member states in the year chosen above. A click opens the country page.