Births per woman and replacement level

For a population to stay stable over time, without migration, each woman needs to have about 2.1 children on average: two to replace the parents, and a little more because not everyone reaches adulthood. This is the replacement level. In 1950 women in the world had almost 5 children; today just over 2, and far fewer in many countries.

Births per woman

    Births per woman: how many children a woman would have in her life, at that year’s fertility. After 2023 projections (medium scenario), dashed. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024.

    How old mothers are

    Mean age of mothers at the birth of their children (all of them, not only the first), calculated from births by age of mother. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024.

    Why people have fewer children

    When fewer children die, girls stay longer in school, women work outside the home and people move to cities, families get smaller: this is the second part of the demographic transition. Below replacement level the population does not shrink at once, because there are still many young people of childbearing age, but after a few decades it starts to decline, unless immigrants arrive. Mothers’ age tells the story too: where women have many children they start early and go on for a long time; where they have few they start later.

    Countries and replacement level

    Country Below 2.1 since 1950 2026 2100 Age at birth 2026
    Austria Already below in 1950 2.09 1.34 1.52 31.4
    Latvia Already below in 1950 2.08 1.35 1.52 30.6
    Luxembourg Already below in 1950 1.96 1.41 1.54 32.3
    Estonia 1956 2.27 1.38 1.57 31.3
    Japan 1957 3.62 1.23 1.47 32.2
    Hungary 1959 2.61 1.50 1.59 30.2
    Czech Republic 1960 2.82 1.47 1.62 30.6
    Romania 1962 3.08 1.71 1.67 28.5
    Serbia 1963 2.93 1.51 1.60 29.8
    Ukraine 1964 2.45 1.00 1.30 28.5
    Bulgaria 1965 2.48 1.74 1.68 28.3
    Russia 1967 2.93 1.47 1.59 29.3
    Croatia 1968 2.93 1.47 1.56 31.0
    Malta 1968 4.23 1.12 1.41 31.3
    Sweden 1968 2.29 1.44 1.58 31.7
    Denmark 1969 2.57 1.52 1.61 31.8
    Finland 1969 3.15 1.30 1.51 31.7
    Germany 1970 2.19 1.46 1.60 31.7
    Liechtenstein 1970 2.71 1.54 1.59 32.2
    Switzerland 1971 2.40 1.45 1.58 32.3
    Belgium 1972 2.35 1.40 1.55 31.3
    Canada 1972 3.37 1.33 1.49 31.7
    United States of America 1972 3.09 1.62 1.65 30.2
    Netherlands 1973 3.10 1.44 1.57 31.9
    United Kingdom 1973 2.22 1.53 1.60 31.2
    France 1975 2.96 1.64 1.65 31.9
    Norway 1975 2.52 1.42 1.55 31.8
    San Marino 1975 2.82 1.17 1.43 32.8
    Singapore 1975 6.23 0.97 1.36 32.3
    Australia 1976 3.06 1.64 1.63 31.6
    Belarus 1976 2.64 1.23 1.49 29.0
    Italy 1976 2.52 1.22 1.48 32.3
    Andorra 1977 2.11 1.11 1.41 32.5
    Cyprus 1977 3.87 1.37 1.51 32.0
    Barbados 1978 4.47 1.70 1.66 27.7
    Bosnia and Herzegovina 1978 5.07 1.50 1.61 29.3
    Cuba 1978 4.03 1.45 1.57 26.3
    Lithuania 1978 2.71 1.22 1.45 30.7
    New Zealand 1978 3.55 1.64 1.63 30.8
    Slovenia 1981 2.99 1.58 1.63 30.6
    Spain 1981 2.47 1.24 1.48 32.5
    Antigua and Barbuda 1982 5.12 1.57 1.61 28.4
    Greece 1982 2.57 1.34 1.50 32.3
    Portugal 1982 3.16 1.52 1.61 32.1
    Iceland 1984 3.85 1.49 1.56 31.0
    South Korea 1984 6.06 0.76 1.30 33.4
    Mauritius 1985 6.03 1.21 1.45 29.5
    Montenegro 1986 4.36 1.79 1.69 30.5
    Monaco 1987 3.06 2.08 1.84 30.9
    Ireland 1989 3.50 1.60 1.61 32.7
    Slovakia 1989 3.61 1.57 1.63 29.1
    Poland 1990 3.65 1.31 1.49 30.1
    Thailand 1990 6.36 1.19 1.44 28.6
    China 1991 5.81 1.03 1.35 29.4
    Georgia 1992 2.98 1.78 1.67 29.0
    Armenia 1994 4.90 1.71 1.67 28.2
    Moldova 1994 3.49 1.72 1.67 28.3
    Trinidad and Tobago 1994 5.18 1.52 1.57 27.8
    Azerbaijan 1996 5.07 1.66 1.62 26.0
    Kazakhstan 1996 4.56 2.92 1.94 29.1
    North Korea 1996 4.99 1.75 1.64 28.8
    North Macedonia 1996 5.14 1.47 1.55 29.3
    Palau 1998 7.15 1.84 1.69 28.5
    Seychelles 1998 4.81 2.06 1.72 27.7
    Chile 1999 4.84 1.12 1.41 31.7
    Iran 1999 6.97 1.66 1.64 28.9
    Tunisia 1999 6.68 1.79 1.67 31.4
    Vietnam 1999 5.15 1.86 1.70 27.2
    The Bahamas 2000 4.52 1.36 1.51 28.9
    Saint Kitts and Nevis 2001 6.38 1.50 1.56 27.6
    Albania 2002 6.17 1.32 1.49 29.5
    Brazil 2002 6.12 1.59 1.58 28.1
    Saint Lucia 2002 6.42 1.37 1.50 28.9
    Costa Rica 2003 6.32 1.31 1.49 28.6
    Dominica 2003 5.24 1.46 1.56 28.2
    Mongolia 2003 5.50 2.54 1.79 29.3
    Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 2004 7.29 1.73 1.65 28.4
    Uruguay 2004 2.69 1.38 1.52 29.5
    Brunei 2005 6.98 1.70 1.64 30.8
    Jamaica 2006 3.92 1.33 1.50 28.0
    United Arab Emirates 2006 6.50 1.21 1.46 32.2
    Bahrain 2009 7.29 1.77 1.63 30.0
    Grenada 2009 5.18 1.45 1.54 28.7
    Colombia 2010 6.41 1.60 1.60 26.7
    Kuwait 2010 7.12 1.49 1.57 30.4
    Turkey 2010 6.47 1.62 1.61 29.5
    Qatar 2011 6.54 1.69 1.62 30.4
    Bhutan 2012 6.85 1.43 1.53 30.1
    Cape Verde 2013 6.50 1.49 1.54 28.9
    Malaysia 2013 6.43 1.52 1.56 31.0
    Maldives 2014 6.18 1.53 1.58 30.4
    El Salvador 2015 6.30 1.74 1.62 27.2
    Sri Lanka 2015 5.46 1.93 1.69 29.7
    Mexico 2016 6.71 1.85 1.67 26.8
    Argentina 2018 3.16 1.51 1.58 29.3
    Ecuador 2019 6.73 1.78 1.65 27.5
    Nepal 2019 6.06 1.92 1.67 25.2
    Peru 2019 6.94 1.92 1.68 28.9
    Belize 2020 6.69 1.99 1.69 27.2
    India 2020 5.73 1.93 1.69 27.7
    Philippines 2020 7.13 1.86 1.67 29.1
    Venezuela 2022 6.63 2.04 1.72 26.3
    Myanmar 2025 5.94 2.06 1.73 28.7
    Panama 2025 5.57 2.07 1.74 27.5
    Bangladesh 2026 6.37 2.09 1.72 26.2
    Indonesia 2026 5.11 2.08 1.73 29.1
    Nicaragua 2029 7.12 2.16 1.72 26.0
    Dominican Republic 2030 7.51 2.17 1.73 27.7
    Libya 2030 7.01 2.21 1.72 31.9
    Morocco 2030 6.14 2.16 1.74 29.9
    South Africa 2031 6.03 2.17 1.74 28.3
    Suriname 2031 6.21 2.19 1.74 28.6
    Guatemala 2032 6.80 2.23 1.70 27.2
    Lebanon 2032 5.81 2.19 1.75 29.2
    Saudi Arabia 2034 7.58 2.27 1.72 30.3
    Fiji 2035 6.52 2.23 1.76 28.9
    Laos 2036 6.25 2.33 1.71 26.1
    Oman 2037 7.26 2.44 1.74 31.8
    East Timor 2038 6.61 2.50 1.72 29.2
    Guyana 2041 5.83 2.35 1.78 27.1
    Honduras 2043 7.47 2.42 1.77 27.2
    Paraguay 2043 6.49 2.37 1.78 27.6
    Algeria 2044 7.32 2.62 1.78 31.4
    Jordan 2044 7.44 2.54 1.73 29.9
    Cambodia 2045 6.53 2.49 1.80 27.8
    Bolivia 2047 6.19 2.47 1.79 28.1
    Djibouti 2047 6.82 2.54 1.77 31.5
    Haiti 2048 6.25 2.55 1.77 29.5
    Syria 2048 7.62 2.62 1.76 28.8
    Botswana 2049 6.43 2.63 1.78 28.6
    Eswatini 2050 6.73 2.64 1.78 27.8
    Marshall Islands 2052 7.76 2.77 1.75 27.1
    Turkmenistan 2053 5.26 2.60 1.81 27.8
    Federated States of Micronesia 2054 6.63 2.67 1.80 28.9
    Lesotho 2054 5.70 2.61 1.80 27.8
    Egypt 2060 7.06 2.68 1.84 28.1
    Kyrgyzstan 2061 4.63 2.72 1.84 28.5
    Palestine 2064 7.84 3.13 1.82 28.5
    Kenya 2066 7.39 3.07 1.84 28.2
    The Gambia 2066 6.35 3.70 1.82 29.8
    Tajikistan 2068 5.61 2.96 1.86 26.4
    Israel 2070 4.57 2.73 1.91 31.0
    Papua New Guinea 2071 5.71 2.99 1.88 29.2
    Sierra Leone 2071 6.09 3.53 1.87 28.5
    Ethiopia 2075 6.43 3.72 1.88 29.0
    Iraq 2075 6.20 3.13 1.91 28.6
    Namibia 2075 5.61 3.13 1.91 28.9
    Uganda 2076 6.66 3.97 1.90 28.2
    Rwanda 2077 8.15 3.54 1.89 30.6
    South Sudan 2077 7.12 3.63 1.89 28.4
    Tonga 2078 6.70 3.04 1.93 29.9
    Equatorial Guinea 2079 5.68 3.95 1.91 26.9
    Ghana 2079 6.70 3.26 1.93 29.4
    Nigeria 2079 6.42 4.20 1.91 29.1
    Eritrea 2080 6.52 3.55 1.95 29.1
    Guinea-Bissau 2080 5.91 3.62 1.94 29.4
    Pakistan 2080 6.80 3.44 1.93 28.9
    Tuvalu 2080 5.42 3.10 1.95 29.2
    Uzbekistan 2080 5.17 3.40 1.94 27.1
    Burkina Faso 2081 5.82 3.91 1.95 29.1
    Kiribati 2081 6.13 3.06 1.95 29.0
    Malawi 2081 6.82 3.45 1.95 27.5
    Yemen 2081 7.97 4.33 1.91 29.7
    Nauru 2083 4.60 3.20 1.97 27.1
    Solomon Islands 2083 7.15 3.42 1.96 29.1
    Gabon 2084 3.95 3.49 1.97 28.5
    Liberia 2085 6.00 3.71 1.97 28.2
    São Tomé and Príncipe 2085 6.23 3.47 1.97 28.4
    Zimbabwe 2086 7.04 3.57 1.97 28.1
    Comoros 2088 5.69 3.71 1.98 30.2
    Guinea 2088 5.97 3.96 1.99 28.1
    Mozambique 2088 6.00 4.54 1.99 28.3
    Niger 2092 7.56 5.64 2.01 29.1
    Senegal 2094 6.79 3.66 2.05 29.9
    Central African Republic 2095 5.93 5.69 2.03 28.9
    Burundi 2096 6.92 4.57 2.06 30.1
    Madagascar 2096 7.43 3.78 2.06 27.8
    Samoa 2096 7.55 3.70 2.06 29.1
    Afghanistan 2097 7.25 4.56 2.06 30.6
    Mali 2099 6.87 5.33 2.08 28.8
    Zambia 2099 6.78 3.91 2.08 28.3
    Angola Above 2.1 until 2100 5.77 4.89 2.14 28.5
    Benin Above 2.1 until 2100 5.75 4.34 2.14 29.0
    Cameroon Above 2.1 until 2100 5.73 4.12 2.10 28.4
    Chad Above 2.1 until 2100 6.06 5.84 2.27 29.3
    Democratic Republic of the Congo Above 2.1 until 2100 5.97 5.80 2.16 30.1
    Ivory Coast Above 2.1 until 2100 7.61 4.10 2.17 29.0
    Mauritania Above 2.1 until 2100 5.79 4.48 2.14 30.2
    Republic of the Congo Above 2.1 until 2100 6.06 3.99 2.17 28.6
    Somalia Above 2.1 until 2100 7.25 5.80 2.19 29.3
    Sudan Above 2.1 until 2100 6.66 4.13 2.15 29.8
    Tanzania Above 2.1 until 2100 6.18 4.41 2.26 28.9
    Togo Above 2.1 until 2100 6.60 4.01 2.18 28.9
    Vanuatu Above 2.1 until 2100 7.04 3.50 2.12 28.0

    Births per woman in 1950, today and in 2100; “below 2.1 since” is the first year below the threshold (some countries later rise a little). Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024; after 2023 projections, medium scenario. Countries are the 195 UN states.