Ageing and the demographic window

Children and old people usually do not work: they depend on those aged 15 to 64. The dependency ratio says how many of them there are for every 100 people of working age. When children become fewer and old people are still few, for a few decades there are many people working: this is the demographic window, a chance to grow that each country gets only once.

How many depend on 100 people of working age

    Below the line: the young; above: the old; together, the dependency ratio. After 2023 projections, lighter. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024.

    What is the demographic window

    For the United Nations the demographic window is the period when less than 30% of the population is under 15 and less than 15% is 65 or over. In those years there are many people of working age compared with children and the elderly: with jobs, schools and investment, the economy can grow fast (the “demographic dividend”). Europe and Japan have already had it, China has just closed it, most of Africa will have it in the coming decades.

    The demographic window of each state

    Country Window From To Ratio 2026 0–14 % 65+ %
    Monaco Already closed – before 1950 100.0 14.1 35.9
    Andorra Already closed 1950 or earlier 2022 40.0 11.4 17.2
    Australia Already closed 1950 or earlier 2015 56.2 17.5 18.5
    Austria Already closed 1950 or earlier 1993 55.5 14.1 21.6
    Belgium Already closed 1950 or earlier 1990 58.2 15.4 21.4
    Bulgaria Already closed 1950 or earlier 1994 58.2 14.3 22.5
    Canada Already closed 1950 or earlier 2012 55.2 14.9 20.7
    Croatia Already closed 1950 or earlier 1997 60.1 13.5 24.0
    Czech Republic Already closed 1950 or earlier 2008 56.9 14.8 21.5
    Denmark Already closed 1950 or earlier 2004 58.4 15.5 21.4
    Estonia Already closed 1950 or earlier 2000 59.1 14.9 22.3
    Finland Already closed 1950 or earlier 2000 62.7 14.0 24.5
    France Already closed 1950 or earlier 1994 63.6 16.0 22.9
    Gabon Open now 1950 or earlier 2097 67.0 36.0 4.2
    Georgia Already closed 1950 or earlier 2021 57.6 20.2 16.4
    Germany Already closed 1950 or earlier 1992 61.6 13.9 24.2
    Greece Already closed 1950 or earlier 1993 59.5 12.6 24.7
    Hungary Already closed 1950 or earlier 2000 55.4 14.3 21.3
    Ireland Already closed 1950 or earlier 2021 52.0 17.7 16.5
    Italy Already closed 1950 or earlier 1990 58.8 11.4 25.6
    Latvia Already closed 1950 or earlier 2000 60.4 15.0 22.7
    Liechtenstein Already closed 1950 or earlier 2012 56.8 14.2 22.0
    Lithuania Already closed 1950 or earlier 2002 55.3 14.3 21.3
    Luxembourg Already closed 1950 or earlier 2022 46.8 15.7 16.2
    Netherlands Already closed 1950 or earlier 2009 56.6 14.9 21.3
    New Zealand Already closed 1950 or earlier 2017 55.5 17.6 18.0
    Norway Already closed 1950 or earlier 2010 54.1 15.7 19.4
    Poland Already closed 1950 or earlier 2014 54.8 14.1 21.3
    Portugal Already closed 1950 or earlier 1995 61.3 12.6 25.4
    Romania Already closed 1950 or earlier 2005 55.5 15.4 20.2
    San Marino Already closed 1950 or earlier 1995 54.5 11.4 23.8
    Serbia Already closed 1950 or earlier 1997 60.2 14.2 23.4
    Slovakia Already closed 1950 or earlier 2016 53.5 15.4 19.5
    Slovenia Already closed 1950 or earlier 2003 58.5 14.2 22.7
    Spain Already closed 1950 or earlier 1994 52.6 12.3 22.2
    Sweden Already closed 1950 or earlier 1974 60.0 16.4 21.1
    Switzerland Already closed 1950 or earlier 1997 55.5 14.8 20.9
    Ukraine Already closed 1950 or earlier 2014 48.2 13.4 19.1
    United Kingdom Already closed 1950 or earlier 1984 57.9 16.7 19.9
    United States of America Already closed 1950 or earlier 2017 55.6 16.9 18.8
    Uruguay Already closed 1950 or earlier 2018 51.6 17.5 16.5
    Belarus Already closed 1951 2017 52.3 15.5 18.9
    Russia Already closed 1951 2018 54.1 16.7 18.4
    Japan Already closed 1960 1995 70.2 11.1 30.2
    Argentina Open now 1968 2036 49.9 20.4 12.9
    Malta Already closed 1968 2009 50.8 12.8 20.9
    United Arab Emirates Open now 1970 2100 or later 21.6 15.9 1.8
    Moldova Already closed 1972 2021 57.9 19.2 17.4
    Cyprus Already closed 1974 2025 45.6 16.1 15.3
    Montenegro Already closed 1975 2016 57.3 17.7 18.8
    Iceland Already closed 1976 2021 50.6 17.3 16.3
    Singapore Open now 1977 2026 36.1 11.8 14.8
    Bosnia and Herzegovina Already closed 1978 2009 56.8 12.7 23.5
    North Macedonia Already closed 1979 2017 54.4 16.2 19.0
    Barbados Already closed 1980 2020 52.8 16.9 17.6
    Qatar Open now 1980 2100 or later 20.1 15.0 1.7
    Cuba Already closed 1982 2017 47.8 14.7 17.6
    Antigua and Barbuda Open now 1983 2029 43.1 17.2 12.9
    North Korea Open now 1985 2030 46.8 18.9 13.0
    South Korea Already closed 1986 2018 45.5 9.8 21.4
    China Already closed 1987 2025 42.7 14.8 15.1
    The Bahamas Open now 1988 2031 42.2 17.2 12.5
    Chile Already closed 1989 2025 45.3 16.1 15.1
    Mauritius Open now 1990 2026 40.9 14.3 14.7
    Thailand Already closed 1990 2023 44.4 14.1 16.7
    Palau Open now 1991 2031 42.8 17.6 12.4
    Israel Open now 1994 2043 65.9 26.9 12.8
    Sri Lanka Open now 1994 2032 52.0 21.4 12.8
    Seychelles Open now 1996 2041 40.0 19.6 9.0
    Trinidad and Tobago Open now 1996 2028 44.3 17.2 13.5
    Kazakhstan Open now 1997 2055 61.8 28.9 9.3
    Armenia Already closed 1998 2025 51.2 18.7 15.2
    Saint Kitts and Nevis Open now 1999 2033 44.0 18.4 12.2
    Albania Already closed 2000 2020 53.0 16.3 18.3
    Bahrain Open now 2000 2095 28.8 18.2 4.2
    Brazil Open now 2000 2033 45.0 19.1 11.9
    Dominica Open now 2000 2030 44.6 17.4 13.5
    Kuwait Open now 2000 2100 or later 26.6 17.8 3.3
    Azerbaijan Open now 2001 2039 43.6 20.6 9.8
    Brunei Open now 2001 2041 38.9 20.4 7.6
    Tunisia Open now 2001 2037 50.1 23.0 10.3
    Turkey Open now 2001 2036 45.9 20.6 10.9
    Costa Rica Open now 2002 2029 45.2 17.8 13.3
    Vietnam Open now 2002 2037 47.8 22.4 9.9
    Grenada Open now 2003 2031 46.2 18.6 13.0
    Indonesia Open now 2003 2049 46.4 23.9 7.8
    Iran Open now 2003 2040 43.9 21.6 8.9
    Saint Lucia Open now 2003 2036 37.8 17.1 10.3
    Saint Vincent and the Grenadines Open now 2003 2031 49.5 20.5 12.7
    Algeria Open now 2004 2047 57.4 29.4 7.0
    Lebanon Open now 2004 2042 55.5 25.0 10.7
    Mongolia Open now 2005 2072 57.8 30.9 5.7
    Colombia Open now 2006 2036 43.6 19.7 10.6
    Jamaica Open now 2006 2041 36.7 17.9 9.0
    Myanmar Open now 2006 2056 46.2 23.9 7.7
    Maldives Open now 2007 2044 31.1 18.4 5.3
    Oman Open now 2007 2093 36.6 24.1 2.7
    Malaysia Open now 2008 2046 41.2 20.9 8.3
    Morocco Open now 2008 2046 50.4 24.8 8.8
    Panama Open now 2008 2039 51.8 24.2 10.0
    Saudi Arabia Open now 2008 2088 36.2 23.4 3.2
    South Africa Open now 2008 2073 48.5 25.6 7.1
    Uzbekistan Open now 2008 2085 60.6 31.5 6.3
    Peru Open now 2009 2042 49.2 23.3 9.7
    Bhutan Open now 2010 2048 36.2 19.8 6.8
    Libya Open now 2010 2047 46.3 26.2 5.4
    Mexico Open now 2010 2044 48.1 23.7 8.8
    Venezuela Open now 2010 2042 53.1 24.3 10.4
    Turkmenistan Open now 2011 2061 56.0 30.8 5.1
    Suriname Open now 2012 2050 50.5 25.1 8.5
    Cape Verde Open now 2013 2047 45.5 23.8 7.5
    Dominican Republic Open now 2013 2049 52.2 25.8 8.5
    El Salvador Open now 2013 2051 48.0 24.0 8.5
    Fiji Open now 2013 2072 50.1 26.6 6.8
    India Open now 2013 2050 45.8 23.8 7.6
    Ecuador Open now 2014 2044 47.5 23.3 8.9
    Paraguay Open now 2016 2056 54.0 28.1 6.9
    Bangladesh Open now 2018 2053 51.9 27.3 6.8
    Belize Open now 2018 2054 45.9 26.0 5.5
    Guyana Open now 2018 2063 56.0 28.7 7.2
    Nepal Open now 2021 2060 52.5 27.7 6.7
    Nicaragua Open now 2022 2055 50.9 27.9 5.9
    Philippines Open now 2022 2060 47.8 26.4 6.0
    Djibouti Open now 2023 2075 50.5 28.5 5.1
    Bolivia Open now 2024 2069 53.7 29.1 5.9
    Cambodia Open now 2024 2060 55.8 29.2 6.6
    Syria Open now 2024 2065 48.9 27.9 5.0
    Laos Open now 2025 2063 52.5 29.5 5.0
    Honduras Open now 2026 2063 52.9 29.9 4.7
    Jordan Open now 2026 2059 52.9 29.6 5.0
    Guatemala Will open 2027 2062 55.2 30.5 5.1
    Haiti Will open 2027 2079 54.4 30.4 4.9
    Egypt Will open 2029 2073 57.6 31.1 5.4
    Kyrgyzstan Will open 2030 2075 60.5 31.4 6.3
    East Timor Will open 2031 2070 60.8 32.6 5.2
    Federated States of Micronesia Will open 2031 2078 60.1 31.2 6.4
    Marshall Islands Will open 2032 2082 62.3 33.3 5.1
    Tuvalu Will open 2032 2086 68.0 33.0 7.5
    Botswana Will open 2033 2071 56.0 31.8 4.1
    Eswatini Will open 2033 2082 58.8 32.6 4.4
    Lesotho Will open 2034 2088 60.1 33.6 3.9
    Papua New Guinea Will open 2035 2096 57.5 32.8 3.7
    Kiribati Will open 2037 2095 62.6 34.0 4.5
    Tajikistan Will open 2038 2081 65.9 35.4 4.3
    Namibia Will open 2039 2086 67.2 36.3 3.9
    Iraq Will open 2041 2080 63.6 35.4 3.5
    Palestine Will open 2041 2072 69.5 37.0 4.0
    Ghana Will open 2043 2090 63.7 35.0 3.9
    Tonga Will open 2043 2078 70.5 34.4 7.0
    Sierra Leone Will open 2045 2097 68.2 37.2 3.3
    Kenya Will open 2046 2094 63.4 35.7 3.1
    Solomon Islands Will open 2046 2087 66.2 36.1 3.7
    The Gambia Will open 2046 2087 73.8 39.2 3.3
    Pakistan Will open 2047 2092 67.3 35.8 4.4
    Guinea-Bissau Will open 2048 2097 69.9 37.9 3.3
    Rwanda Will open 2048 2087 68.9 36.7 4.1
    Comoros Will open 2050 2093 69.6 36.6 4.4
    Eritrea Will open 2050 2084 70.6 37.1 4.3
    Senegal Will open 2050 2089 69.5 37.3 3.7
    South Sudan Will open 2050 2100 or later 67.4 37.1 3.2
    Burkina Faso Will open 2051 2100 or later 76.2 40.5 2.7
    Ethiopia Will open 2051 2090 72.1 38.5 3.4
    Nauru Will open 2051 2100 or later 65.6 36.5 3.2
    São Tomé and Príncipe Will open 2051 2088 70.0 37.2 4.0
    Liberia Will open 2052 2100 or later 72.4 38.6 3.4
    Malawi Will open 2052 2094 73.0 39.6 2.6
    Equatorial Guinea Will open 2053 2100 or later 68.6 36.9 3.9
    Guinea Will open 2053 2100 or later 77.6 40.2 3.5
    Nigeria Will open 2053 2100 or later 75.8 40.0 3.1
    Uganda Will open 2053 2085 81.6 42.7 2.3
    Vanuatu Will open 2053 2090 72.5 37.6 4.5
    Yemen Will open 2055 2094 77.0 40.9 2.6
    Madagascar Will open 2056 2100 or later 73.0 38.6 3.5
    Zimbabwe Will open 2056 2099 75.9 39.6 3.5
    Samoa Will open 2057 2091 77.8 37.6 6.2
    Sudan Will open 2057 2098 76.3 39.8 3.5
    Zambia Will open 2057 2100 or later 74.1 40.5 2.1
    Afghanistan Will open 2059 2100 or later 80.7 42.2 2.5
    Burundi Will open 2060 2100 or later 84.4 43.2 2.6
    Cameroon Will open 2060 2100 or later 77.4 40.8 2.8
    Benin Will open 2061 2100 or later 79.0 40.9 3.2
    Mauritania Will open 2062 2098 82.8 42.0 3.3
    Republic of the Congo Will open 2062 2100 or later 74.0 39.4 3.1
    Togo Will open 2062 2100 or later 72.7 38.8 3.3
    Mozambique Will open 2063 2100 or later 87.1 43.9 2.7
    Niger Will open 2064 2100 or later 94.1 45.8 2.6
    Ivory Coast Will open 2065 2100 or later 74.7 40.1 2.7
    Tanzania Will open 2068 2100 or later 82.4 42.2 3.0
    Angola Will open 2069 2100 or later 87.8 43.8 2.9
    Mali Will open 2069 2100 or later 91.5 45.4 2.3
    Central African Republic Will open 2070 2100 or later 101.9 48.2 2.2
    Somalia Will open 2071 2100 or later 96.7 46.5 2.6
    Democratic Republic of the Congo Will open 2072 2100 or later 95.8 45.8 3.1
    Chad Will open 2074 2100 or later 92.8 46.0 2.1

    Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024 (CC BY 3.0 IGO); after 2023 projections, medium scenario. States are the UN’s 195; the peak is the year with the most inhabitants between 1950 and 2100.